新疆降水量与参考作物腾发量的年际变化特性

为了深入、系统地研究新疆地区降水量和参考作物腾发量的年际变化规律,在运用FAO-56Penman-Monteith公式计算新疆地区52个气象站点的年参考作物腾发量序列基础上,采用MannKendall趋势检验法和BG分割算法对各站点的降水量和参考作物腾发量序列的趋势性、突变性等年际变化特征进行了具体研究。结果表明:近60年来,新疆地区年降水量整体上呈增加趋势,而参考作物腾发量整体上呈减小趋势;参考作物腾发量的突变较降水量的突变更为频繁和复杂;新疆地区农业生产的水资源天然供需条件有改善倾向,有利于农业生产发展。

Characteristics of interannual change of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration in Xinjiang area

In order to thoroughly discuss the interannual change regulations of the precipitation and reference evapotranspiration in Xinjiang area, the Mann-Kendall trend analysis and BG segmentation algorithm were applied to study the trend and mutation characteristics of the annual precipitation and reference evapotranspiration of 52 meteorological stations in Xinjiang area, calculated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith formula. Results show that, over the last 60 years, the annual precipitation is increasing and the annual reference evapotranspiration is decreasing in general; furthermore, the mutation of annual reference evapotranspiration is more frequent and complicated comparing with annual precipitation. The natural supply and demand condition of water resources for agriculture in Xinjiang area is inclined to improve, which is beneficial to agriculture development.