2021—2035年世界锗矿产品供需形势分析

锗矿作为一种重要的战略性矿产,在新兴产业和国防军工领域具有应用潜力。我国随着环境保护力度的加大和产业结构的调整,对锗资源开采和深加工能力提出新要求,研究锗资源供需形势是制定相关产业发展政策和规划的基础。本文以全球长周期数据为基础,利用部门消费法定量预测未来25年锗需求量,并在环境保护的制约下分析全球供需形势。研究认为全球锗资源需求将快速增加,2025年、2030年和2035年的需求量预计分别为198.5t、258.1t和308.6t;受环保制约,全球锗供应增长潜力有限,2025年开始供不应求现象逐步凸显;全球范围内锗金属二次回收量将进一步增加,预计到2035年全球45%的锗来自二次回收。基于以上研究,本文认为当前锗产业正处于新一轮起飞点,我国为实现锗资源大国向资源强国的转变,有必要在加强行业联合、鼓励研发投入、扶持二次回收等方面出台支持政策。

Analysis of the global germanium resource supply and demand situation

Germanium, as a rare and rare metal, has very important application potential in strategic emerging industries and national defense and military industries, and has been listed as a war-new mineral by many countries. China is a country with large germanium resources, accounting for 41% and 65% of the world"s reserves and production respectively, but there are many problems such as serious environmental pollution and insufficient deep processing capacity of resources. Based on global long-term data, this article uses the sectoral consumption method to quantitatively predict germanium demand in the next 25 years, and analyzes the global supply and demand situation. The research in this paper found that optical fiber and infrared equipment are the most important consumption areas of germanium, and the proportion of consumption will further increase in the future. Starting from 2025, the shortage of supply will gradually become more prominent, and secondary recycling will further increase globally. It is estimated that 45% of the world"s germanium will come from secondary recycling by 2035; In order to realize the transformation from a major germanium resource country to a resource-powered country, it is necessary for my country to introduce supporting policies in strengthening industry alliances, encouraging R D investment, and supporting secondary recycling.