矿区地表沉降灰色系统预测模型适用性——以陕西榆家梁煤矿为例

灰色系统理论模型是矿区地表沉降预测的重要方法之一,针对各种灰色系统理论模型在矿区地表沉降预测中的适用性问题,该文以灰色数列模型、GM(1,1)模型和灰色Verhulst模型为地表沉降预测模型,以陕西神木县榆家梁煤矿综采工作面地表沉降监测数据为数据源,开展了灰色系统理论模型预测对比研究。同时,以后验差比C和小误差概率P对比验证3种模型的预测精度。结果表明:(1) Verhulst模型的P值均为1,C值最大为0.11,最小为0.04,是3种灰色系统理论模型中精度最高、预测效果最佳的模型;(2)GM(1,1)模型的P值均为1,C值最小为0.14最大为0.19,是3种灰色系统理论模型中精度最低、预测效果最差的模型;(3)灰色数列模型、GM(1,1)模型、灰色Verhulst模型的模型精度均为优秀,均是矿区地表沉降预测的适用性模型。

Applicability of grey system prediction model for ground settlement: A case study of coal mine in Yujialiang, Shaanxi Province

The gray system theoretical model is one of the important methods for the prediction of surface settlement in mining areas. To address the applicability of various gray system theoretical models in the prediction of surface settlement in mining areas, this paper uses the gray series model, GM(1,1) model and gray Verhulst model. Taking the surface settlement monitoring data of Yujialing coal mine''s fully mechanized mining face as the data source, a comparative study of grey system theory model prediction was carried out. At the same time, the comparison between the posterior difference ratio C and the small error probability P verifies the prediction accuracy of the three models. The results show that:(1) The P value of the Verhulst model is 1, the maximum value of C is 0.11, and the minimum value is 0.04. It is the model with the highest accuracy and the best prediction effect among the three gray system theoretical models; (2) GM(1,1) The P value of the model is 1, the minimum C value is 0.14 and the maximum is 0.19, which is the model with the lowest accuracy and the worst prediction effect among the three gray system theoretical models; (3) gray series model, GM(1,1) The accuracy of the model and the gray Verhulst model are excellent, and they are both applicable models for the prediction of surface settlement in mining areas.