基于成功流法的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估

文章引入成功流法解决现有蒙特卡洛法应用于大规模配电信息系统可靠性评估耗时的问题。根据智能分布式的故障处理模式对信息物理系统进行设备及功能可靠性建模,利用同一系统内、不同系统间元件之间的依存关系定量分析信息系统故障对物理系统供电可靠性的影响,获得计及信息系统影响的成功运行频率概率和区域成功运行时间概率,并由此得到负荷点及系统可靠性指标。最后,将文章提出的方法与蒙特卡洛法进行比较,计算结果表明文章提出的方法具有较好的精度及实用性,在大规模配电信息物理系统中效率优势更为明显。

Reliability Assessment of Distribution Network Cyber-Physical System Using Goal-Oriented Method

Goal-oriented method is used to assess distribution network cyber-physical system reliability. According to the structure and application of cyber system， cyber equipment and function reliability models are established and success probability is used to depict the influence of cyber system on physical system. Reliability models of distribution network cyber-physical system are built on the basis of dependent relationship among cyber components， physical components， and cyber physical systems. Failure rates and average failure time of load points are calculated on the regional basis， which can be used in system reliability index calculation. This method is compared with Monte-Carlo method in a test system and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results also show the efficiency advantage in large-scale distribution information physical system.