基于GIS-MCDA的蒙古国可再生能源资源评估方法研究

为准确评估可再生能源资源开发潜力,提出一种基于地理信息系统(GIS)和多标准决策分析(MCDA)的资源评估方法,构造GIS支持的多标准决策分析模型。在考虑资源条件、地形坡度、离城镇距离、离路网距离,以及离电网情况等多重因素下,结合GIS空间分析和多标准决策方法,对可再生能源开发场站影响因素进行决策分析,从技术和经济可开发潜力两方面给出资源评估总体流程和方法。结合蒙古国实际的风速、太阳辐射度和其他空间数据,对蒙古国风能和太阳能资源潜在开发区域进行评估,得到风电和光伏场站建设的空间适宜性分布地图,验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明,蒙古国风电开发适宜区域潜在可开发的风资源高达21.7 GW,覆盖面积约为4340 km2;光伏场站开发适宜区域潜在可开发的太阳能资源约为483.7 GW,覆盖面积超过12000 km2,具备大规模可再生能源开发潜力。同时,对比适宜区域的风电和光伏开发项目LOCE,可以看出在中短期内风电较光伏更经济,但长远来看,随着光伏组件和系统平衡的改善,太阳能光伏LCOE会下降至与风力发电相同的水平。

Using GIS-Based MCDA to Evaluate Optimum Potential Renewable Power Development Sites in Mongolia

In order to accurately evaluate the potential of renewable energy resource development,this paper proposes a resource evaluation method based on geographic information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA),and constructs a multi-criteria decision analysis model supported by GIS.Considering multiple factors such as energy resources,terrain slope,distance from towns,distances from road networks,and grid conditions,and combined with GIS spatial analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis methods,a decision analysis on the influencing factors of renewable energy development sites was carried out.The overall process and method of resource assessment are given in terms of economic development potential and economic development potential.Then,based on Mongolia’s actual wind speed,solar irradiance and other spatial data,the potential development areas of Mongolia’s wind and solar resources were evaluated,and the spatial suitability distribution map of Mongolia’s wind power and photovoltaic field stations was obtained,which verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.The research results show that the potential developable wind resources in Mongolia's suitable area for wind power development are 21.7 GW and the coverage area is approximately 4340 km2;the potential developable solar resources in the suitable area for photovoltaic station development are approximately 483.7 GW,covering an area of more than 12000 km2;it has the potential for large-scale renewable energy development.At the same time,compared with the LCOE of wind power and photovoltaic projects in suitable development areas,wind power is likely to be cheaper than solar PV in the short and medium term,but in the long run,with the improvement of photovoltaic modules and system balance,solar photovoltaic LCOE will fall to the same level as wind power generation.