一种新的促进厂网规划协调的整体框架与模型

通过分析厂网分开后电力行业出现的新情况和电力市场改革的发展趋势,提出了新时期的电力规划新模式,引入协调因子来促进厂网规划的协调及共同承担规划风险。以计及可靠性的缺电成本和考虑经济性的输电利用成本作为规划协调变量,以全社会效益最大为目标,使用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行风险分析,结合投资(规划)决策者对效益、风险的理性认识,建立了电力市场环境下促进厂网规划协调的实用而新颖的数学模型。最后提出了采用厂网协调发展系数对电力规划进行评估,从而影响下一阶段的电力规划。后续文章将给出模型的算法和算例分析。

A Novel Model to Promote Coordination of Power Plant Planning and Power Network Planning and Its Global Framework

Through analyzing some new circumstances in electric power industry that appear after the separation of power plants from power networks and according to the trend of electricity market reformation,a new mode of electric power planning in new period is proposed.To promote the coordination of power plant planning and power network planning and to undertake the risks of planning in common,the coordination factor is led in.Using both outage cost taking reliability into account and the transmission utilization cost considering economical efficiency as coordination variables of planning and taking the maximized social benefit as the objective function,the risk analysis is conducted by Monte-Carlo simulation.Combining the rational knowledge on benefit and risk of investment decision-maker,a new and practicable mathematical model to promote the coordination of planning for both power plants and power networks under the condition of electricity market is established.Finally,it is put forward to evaluate the power planning by coordination development coefficient between power network and power plants in order to feed the conclusion of the evaluation back to the planning of next stage.