| 蒙特卡罗法在综合单价风险分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 易欣. 蒙特卡罗法在综合单价风险分析中的应用[J]. 徐州建筑职业技术学院学报, 2008, 8(3): 44-46 |
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| 作者姓名： | 易欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东交通大学,土木建筑学院,江西,南昌,330013 |
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| 基金项目： | 华东交通大学校立科研项目，华东交通大学校科研和教改项目，江西省道路与铁道工程重点实验室资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合工程量清单计价模式的特点，从承包商的角度对综合单价风险分析方法进行了阐述．分析和评价了综合单价风险的内容，建立了一种简便的数学模型，运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术进行风险的量化分析，并以一个工程实例进行了应用探讨，证明了该方法的有效性．
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| 关 键 词： | 工程量清单模式 综合单价 蒙特卡罗模拟 风险分析 |
Application of Monte Carlo Method in Risk Analysis of Integrated Unit Price |
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| YI Xin. Application of Monte Carlo Method in Risk Analysis of Integrated Unit Price[J]. Journal of XUZHOU Institute of Architectural Technology, 2008, 8(3): 44-46 |
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| Authors: | YI Xin |
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| Affiliation: | YI Xin(School of Civil , Architectural Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330013,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the characteristics of BOQ(bill of quantities) valuation model,this paper elaborates on the risk analysis method for integrated unit price from the perspective of contractors.The contents of risks in integrated unit price are analyzed and evaluated,and a simple and convenient mathematical model is constructed.The author makes the risk quantitative analysis by Monte Carlo method and carries out the application study with an engineering case to bear out the effectiveness of the method. |
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| Keywords: | BOQ valuation model integrated unit price Mente Carlo method risk analysis |
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