天然气管道业务价值评估模型及应用

随着中国天然气管网建设的快速发展以及油气体制改革的进一步深入,油气企业对天然气管道业务的价值更加重视,对管道业务价值评估的准确性也提出了更高要求。在此背景下,构建天然气管道业务价值评估模型并分析其价值驱动因素,具有重要意义。为此,系统分析中国天然气管道业务价值评估现状,采用以自由现金流为基础的收益法构建天然气管道业务价值评估模型,深入探讨模型关键参数的确定和计算方法,并在此基础上,进行价值驱动因素分析和敏感性分析。结论认为:(1)通过实际案例的应用,表明采用该模型评估天然气管道业务价值得到的评价结果真实而可靠;(2)价值驱动因素分析结果认为,管输费水平是影响天然气管道业务价值的主要因素,其次为当年投资额及管输量;(3)通过敏感性分析,天然气管道业务价值与管输收入呈强正相关,与管输成本和投资呈弱负相关。进而提出建议:(1)宏观层面上,相关部门应加快推动天然气管网建设,拓展下游天然气市场需求,从而提高天然气管输量;(2)微观层面上,油气企业应通过强化市场营销、利用外资、引进技术等手段加强对天然气管道业务的管理。

Value assessment models for natural gas pipeline business and its application

With the rapid development of natural gas pipeline construction and the further implementation of oil and gas system reform, oil and gas enterprises pay more attention to the value of natural gas pipeline business and require higher accuracy of pipeline business value assessment. Therefore, it is significant to construct a value assessment model for natural gas pipeline business and analyze its value drivers. In this paper, the current value assessment situations of China's natural gas pipeline business were analyzed systematically. Then, the value assessment model for natural gas pipeline business was built by using the income approach which is based on free cash flow. And finally, value driver analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed after the determination and calculation of key parameters were discussed. This value assessment model was applied to actual cases, and it is indicated that its evaluation on the value of natural gas pipelinebusiness is reliable. Based on the value driver analysis, pipeline transportation cost is the predominant factor influencing the value of natural gas pipeline business, followed by investment and pipeline transportation volume. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the value of natural gas pipeline business has a strong positive correlation with the pipeline transportation revenue, but a weak negative correlation with the investment and pipeline transportation cost. It is suggested that relevant authorities should promote the construction of natural gas pipelines and expand the demand of downstream natural gas markets so as to increase the natural gas pipeline transportation volume. On the other hand, oil and gas enterprises should reinforce the management of natural gas pipeline business by strengthening the marketing,utilizing the foreign capital and introducing the related technologies.