| 时间序列模型在风场风速预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张少济,曾杰,张华,王晶. 时间序列模型在风场风速预测中的应用[J]. 水利水电技术, 2016, 47(12): 132 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张少济 曾杰 张华 王晶 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.国家电投湖南五凌电力有限公司博士后科研工作站，湖南长沙410004；2.华北电力大学动力工程及工程热物理博士后科研流动站，北京102206；3.国家电力投资集团公司，北京100033；4.长江勘测规划设计研究院，湖北武汉430010；5.华北电力大学可再生能源学院，北京102206） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对风速的特点,介绍了在风场风资源利用中几种较为常用的风速预测方法,并且结合实例详细叙述了时间序列法在风场风速预测中的应用。由实例得到的预测模型所得的平均绝对百分比误差为15.7%,与实际风速分布特性较为吻合。研究结果验证了时间序列模型在风场风速预测中的可用性,为风能源的实际应用提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 风场 风资源 时间序列 风速预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-08-09 |
Application of time series model to prediction of wind speed in wind field |
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| ZHANG Shaoji,ZENG Jie,ZHANG Hua,WANG Jing. Application of time series model to prediction of wind speed in wind field[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2016, 47(12): 132 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shaoji ZENG Jie ZHANG Hua WANG Jing |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the characteristics of wind speed，several conventional methods for predicting wind speed in the utilization of the wind resource in wind field are introduced herein，while the application of the time series to the prediction of wind speed in wind fiel is described in detail through the actual case concerned. The error of the mean absolute percentage got from the predicting model obtained through the actual case is 15.7%，which is more inosculated with that of the distribution characteristics of the actual wind speed. The study result verifies the usability of the time series model for the prediction of wind speed within wind field, and provide a reference for the practical application of wind energy. |
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| Keywords: | wind field wind resources time series wind speed prediction |
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