| 天气因素对配电网可靠性影响的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 文波,刘贞毅,洪彬倬. 天气因素对配电网可靠性影响的探讨[J]. 广东电力, 2012, 25(9): 72-75 |
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| 作者姓名： | 文波 刘贞毅 洪彬倬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东电网公司河源供电局,广东河源,517000
2. 广东工业大学自动化学院,广东广州,510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东自然科学基金资助项目(8151009001000059) |
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| 摘 要： | 异常天气对元件可靠性及配电网可靠性的影响很大，采用传统评估方法获得的元件故障率评估结果往往与实际统计结果差异较大。为此，将天气状态划分为正常天气、恶劣天气和灾害天气3种状态，并建立故障率一天气模型，采用序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法来探讨天气因素对元件故障率的影响。采用灵敏度分析法对在3种天气状态下的元件故障率与元件平均故障率的关系进行算例分析，结果表明非正常天气对配电网可靠性的影响十分显著，元件平均故障率将随着非正常天气的增多而显著增大。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气状态 配电网可靠性 蒙特卡罗模拟 灵敏度分析法 |
Discussion on Impact of Weather on Reliability of Distribution Networks |
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| WEN Bo , LIU Zhenyi , HONG Binzhuo. Discussion on Impact of Weather on Reliability of Distribution Networks[J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2012, 25(9): 72-75 |
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| Authors: | WEN Bo LIU Zhenyi HONG Binzhuo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Heyuan Power Supply Bureau of GPGC,Heyuan,Guangdong 517000,China;2.Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510006,China) |
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| Abstract: | Bad weather greatly influences reliability of both elements and distribution networks.Results from Part fault rate evaluation by conventional evaluation differ to that of practical statistics.Therefore,the weather is divided into the normal,the bad and disastrous.Fault rate-weather model is established and Mente Carlo simulation method is adopted for calculation analysis.The result shows that abnormal weather significantly influences reliability of distribution networks and average part fault rate is proportional to bad weather. |
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| Keywords: | weather distribution network reliability Mente Carlo simulation sensitivity analysis |
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