基于层次分析法的电力负荷组合预测

为提高电力系统负荷预测的预测精度,提出了一种基于层次分析法的中长期负荷预测组合预测的方法,依据层析分析法中要素权重求取原则,建立了阶梯层次结构,构建两两比较矩阵,分层次对权向量取值,实现了中长期负荷组合预测下各单一负荷预测的总权重的求取,提高了权重求解的准确性;利用组合预测的原理,按照层次分析法中求解出的权重系数,将多个预测模型的预测结果进行拟合,得到组合预测的结果,从而有效减小单一负荷预测中不确定性因素带来的误差,规避各单一预测方法的不足,减少单一负荷预测对电力系统负荷预测的预测风险,提高预测精度。最后利用某县2005-2010年的除大用户用电负荷作为算例进行实例分析并证实了所提方法的科学性、实用性。

Combination Forecasting of Electric Power Load Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

In order to enhance the forecast precision of electric power load forecasting,Proposed one kind of method that medium and long-term load forecasting combination forecast which based on analytic hierarchy process,used the method of solving weight in analytic hierarchy process, Establish ladder level structure, structure comparison matrix and solve weight via different layers.solved the weight of each load forecasting model for electrical power system medium and long-term load combination forecast by using analytic hierarchy process, enhanced the accuracy of the weight, Using the principle of combination forecast, according to the solved Weighting coefficient, fitted the weight coefficient of multiple load forecasting model＇ result.reduced the error which the load forecast＇s uncertainty element brought, reduced the risk of solving the electrical power system load forecast, enhanced the precision of lord forecasting . Finally used some county 2005 to 2010＇s electricity that detached the big-user-electricity consumption to analyze the method of this paper as the example.And then it confirmed that the method in this paper is scientific and utility.