定时截尾试验中故障数为零装备的平均无故障间隔时间评估方法研究

随着武器装备设计和工艺水平不断提高，在定时截尾可靠性试验中，出现零个关联故障的概率也在逐渐地提高，统计学家对无失效情况进行了很多研究，这些方法理论性较强，侧重于在无失效情况下的数学推导和理论证明，实际实施难度大。本文依据GJB899可靠性定时截尾试验设计方法，基于小概率原理推导出无故障情况下平均无故障间隔时间(MTBF)的验证值确定方法，给出了估计值计算方案，并对各方案的工程背景进行了详细阐述，该估计方法计算简单，具备很强的操作性和工程应用价值，有效地弥补了依据GJB899中公式无法确定MTBF验证值的不足。随着武器装备设计和工艺水平不断提高，在定时截尾可靠性试验中，出现零个关联故障的概率也在逐渐地提高，统计学家对无失效情况进行了很多研究，这些方法理论性较强，侧重于在无失效情况下的数学推导和理论证明，实际实施难度大。本文依据GJB899可靠性定时截尾试验设计方法，基于小概率原理推导出无故障情况下平均无故障间隔时间(MTBF)的验证值确定方法，给出了估计值计算方案，并对各方案的工程背景进行了详细阐述，该估计方法计算简单，具备很强的操作性和工程应用价值，有效地弥补了依据GJB899中公式无法确定MTBF验证值的不足。

Research on Estimation Method of MTBF for Zero-Failure Data in Reliability Time Truncated Qualification Test

With the advancement of design and manufacturing technology of the weapons and equipment,the probability of zero-failure is increased in the reliability time truncated qualification test.Many Statisticians have addressed such an issue,however,these methods are hardly applied because they focus on the mathematical derivation and the theoretical demonstration on zero-failure.A new method presented in this paper was used to derive a proof value of MTBF(mean-time-between-failures) from the Principle of Little-Probability according to the project of time truncated qualification test in GJB899.The method is easily operated and practicable,and can theoretically calculate the point estimation and the confidence intervals of MTBF.In addition,the application background of the method and project was described in detail.The evaluation method can calculate the estimation value of MTBF for GJB899.