| 基于气象因子的汛期径流预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢小燕,唐海华,王建平,李春红,陈 建,安 万,胡兵轩.基于气象因子的汛期径流预报模型[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(10):10-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢小燕 唐海华 王建平 李春红 陈 建 安 万 胡兵轩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京南瑞集团公司， 江苏 南京 210000; 2. 遵义供电局， 贵州 遵义 563000 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对现有汛期径流预报方法的缺陷,从物理成因出发,采用投影寻踪方法从74项大气环流因子中筛选出影响汛期总径流量的主因子,结合汛期前期降雨量进行相似分析获取相似年份,构建基于气象因子的汛期径流预报模型。以长江流域关键断面汛期来水预报为例开展了模型的实例研究,结果表明,该模型考虑了气象因子对长期径流变化的影响,对汛期总径流量的预报以及汛期月径流预报的精度均高于门限回归模型,是汛期径流预报的一种行之有效的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 汛期来水预报 气象因子 投影寻踪 长江流域 |
Runoff Forecasting Model in Flood Season Based on Weather Factors |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the drawbacks of current runoff forecasting for flood season, based on the physical causes, 74 atmospheric circulation factors that affect the total runoff of flood season are screened by projection pursuit method. Then the similar years are obtained by using the similar analysis of the early stage rainfall in flood season. The runoff forecasting model of flood season based weather factors is developed. The key section of the Yangtze River Basin is selected as the case. The impact of meteorological factors on the long term runoff change is considered by this model. The results show that the forecast precisions of the total runoff in flood season and the monthly runoff forecast are better than that of the threshold regression model, which provides an effective approach for runoff forecasting of flood season. |
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| Keywords: | flood runoff forecasting weather factors projection pursuit method Yangtze River Basin |
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