考虑决策者情绪更新机制的多阶段应急决策方法

针对决策者情绪影响下参照点的动态调整可能导致不同决策结果的情形,提出一种考虑决策者情绪更新机制的多阶段应急决策方法.首先,描述突发事件下的多阶段应急决策问题,并以直觉模糊数的形式刻画相关决策信息;其次,给出决策者情绪影响下动态参照点的设置方法,并运用累积前景理论计算突发事件各个演化阶段的情景价值,据此建立决策者的情绪更新机制;然后,计算各个演化阶段的情景权重,并结合备选方案的期望价值、投入成本及启动时间价值,计算方案在各个演化阶段的前景价值;进一步,通过给出各个演化阶段权重的计算方法,计算备选方案的综合前景价值,并据此给出备选方案的优劣次序;最后,通过算例分析及与其他方法的对比验证所提出方法的有效性.

Multi-stage emergency decision-making method with emotion updating mechanism of decision-makers

Aiming at the situation that the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers'' emotions may lead to different decision-making results, a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with emotion updating mechanism of decision-makers is proposed. Firstly, the multi-stage emergency decision-making problem under emergencies is described, and the relevant decision-making information is described in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. And a setting method of dynamic reference points under the impact of decision makers'' emotions is given, and the cumulative prospect theory is used to calculate the scenario value of each evolutionary stage of emergencies, thereby an emotion updating mechanism is developed. Then, the scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the expected values, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a numerical example and comparison with other methods.