基于退化数据与marker数据综合的产品可靠性建模分析

基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模分析方法,为现代工业中长寿命、高可靠产品的可靠性研究提供了重要途径,但在破坏性测量中无法获得足够的产品性能退化数据.对此,综合利用产品性能退化数据和marker数据对产品可靠性进行建模,不仅能够提高可靠性评估的精度,还可以在产品运行过程中通过对marker的测量来预测产品剩余寿命,从而为产品维修、更换以及备件决策提供依据.采用二元Wiener过程对产品的性能参数和marker进行建模,给出模型参数的估计方法和基于marker测量数据的剩余寿命预测方法,并通过仿真示例验证所提出方法的有效性.

Product reliability modeling and analysis using degradation and marker data

The method of reliability modeling and analysis based on performance degradation data provides an important way for the reliability research of long life and high reliability products in modern industry, but the degradation data cannot be obtained adequately during a destructive inspection. To solve this problem, this paper proposes to use both degradation data and marker data to make reliability inference, which can improve the precision of reliability inference, and make residual lifetime distribution prediction available through inspection of marker during working, contributing to the decision making in maintenance, replacement and spare parts. The performance degradation and marker are modeled with a bivariate Wiener process and, the methods for parameter estimation and residual lifetime distribution prediction are provided. Finally, a simulated example is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.