沙特阿拉伯石油国家成本分析与应用

分析国际油价走势时,需要考虑石油供给端的成本。不同条件下的盈亏平衡成本反映了不同的需求,石油完全成本支撑了石油勘探企业盈亏平衡,高度依赖石油收入的产油国的"国家成本"是产油国维持财政平衡所需的油价。从理论上分析石油国家成本,一方面可以分析产油国供给行为,进而预测油价走势;另一方面也有助于解读产油国政策走向及改革行为,预测可能的政治与财政危机。但在实际应用中,还需要将石油国家成本与一国的外汇储备、汇率变化、财政政策、地缘政治等多种因素综合考虑。本文分析计算了沙特阿拉伯2001～2017年的石油国家成本,结果表明,自2009年以来,该国石油国家成本不断增加,至2014年以后的新一轮油价下跌周期,政府收紧开支逐渐见到成效,石油国家成本不断降低,与国际油价间的差距不断减小,说明缩减开支取得了一定效果,石油国家成本不断降低,也体现出了石油国家成本随着市场的弹性变化。

State Breakeven Oil Cost analysis and application in Saudi Arabia

When analyzing the trend of international oil price, we need to consider the cost of supply. Breakeven costs under different conditions reflect different needs. The total cost of oil exploration and development supports the breakeven of oil enterprises. The state breakeven oil price of oil producing countries is an important indicator to measure whether the country can keep economic and social stability. Analysis of state breakeven oil price can analyze the supply behavior of oil-producing countries and thus predict the price trend, also helps to interpret the policy trend and reform behavior of oil-producing countries and predict the possible political and fiscal crisis. However, in practical application, it is necessary to take the state breakeven oil price into comprehensive consideration with a country"s foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate changes, fiscal policies, geopolitics and other factors. This paper analyzes and calculates the oil national cost of Saudi Arabia, and the results show that since 2009, the state breakeven oil price of Saudi Arabia has been increasing, and after the new cycle of oil price decline in 2014, Saudi Arabia"s tightening spending has gradually shown results, the oil national cost of Saudi Arabia has been decreasing, and the gap with the international oil price has been narrowing.