| 煤炭需求影响因素及情景分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张宏,李仲学.煤炭需求影响因素及情景分析[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(5):557-560. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张宏 李仲学 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京科技大学 土木与环境工程学院，北京，100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 以未来经济社会可持续发展为目标，研究了社会发展、经济增长、经济结构变化、技术进步、产品替代和主要煤炭消费部门活动水平等煤炭需求的影响因素，建立了煤炭需求情景分析模型，对2010年和2020年的煤炭需求进行了情景分析及预测，得出了2010年和2020年国内煤炭需求总量分别为226 810万t和269 041万t的结论.
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| 关 键 词： | 煤炭需求 情景分析 煤炭消费 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-9993(2007)05-0557-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 09 19 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年9月19日 |
Affecting factors and projected scenarios for coal demand in China |
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| ZHANG Hong,LI Zhong-xue.Affecting factors and projected scenarios for coal demand in China[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(5):557-560. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Hong LI Zhong-xue |
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| Affiliation: | School of Civil and Environment, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at the sustainable development of Chinese society and economy in the future,analyzed the affecting factors on coal consumption in China,including social development and urbanization,economic growth,industrial structures,technology innovation,energy substitutes,and the economic activities of major coal consumption sectors.It also built a model for scenario analysis of coal demand and projectted the scenarios of coal consumption in the years of 2010 and 2020 in China.Reached the conclusions that domestic coal demand is 2 268.10 million tons in 2010 and 2 690.41 million tons in 2020 respectively. |
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| Keywords: | coal demand scenario analysis coal consumption |
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