基于云模型及可达性分析的复杂配电网可靠性评估

传统的配电网可靠性评估是将元件故障率参数作为常数加以处理，但实际中要受到诸多因素影响，导致评估结果不准确。将云模型引入到配电网可靠性评估中，结合可达性分析法提出一种配电网可靠性评估的云模型算法。采用正向正态云发生器生成n组元件原始故障率参数，利用可达性分析法对每组云滴评估，得到n组可靠性指标；采用逆向正态云发生器将n组可靠性指标转化成以数字特征表示的可靠性指标云模型。算例验证结果表明，该算法是正确的，且能综合反映指标的具体变化和分布，符合人们对不确定性的认知方式。  

Reliability Assessment of Complex Disrtibution Network Based on Cloud Model and Reachbility Analysis

Traditional distribution network reliability assessment takes component failure parameters as constant. In fact, the reliability will be affected by several factors and the inaccurate assessment is resulted. Based on cloud model and reachability analysis, a kind of cloud algorithm of reliability is proposed. Firstly, positive cloud generator is used to generate n sets of original cloud drops with failure parameters. Then, reachability analysis approach is used to assess these cloud drops to get n sets of reliability index. Finally, negative cloud generator is used to convert the n sets of reliability index into reliability cloud model. Experiment results indicate the algorithm effectiveness, and the algorithm can reflect the reliability index distribution.