| 区域电网年最大负荷概率预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖建华,刘滨涛,姜彬.区域电网年最大负荷概率预测[J].吉林电力,2008,36(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖建华 刘滨涛 姜彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 揭阳供电局,广东,揭阳,522000
2. 大唐长春热电三厂,吉林,长春,130103 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对电力负荷预测中年最大负荷受多种因素影响的难点问题,提出了区域电网年最大负荷的概率预测,对年最大负荷概率模型中的均值和均方差分别建立了灰色模型和回归模型并对其作出预测.通过实例计算表明,该模型具有较高的精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 概率预测 年最大负荷 区域电网 |
Probability Forecasting of Regional Grid Annual Peak Load |
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| XIAO Jian-hua,LIU Bin-tao,JIANG Bin.Probability Forecasting of Regional Grid Annual Peak Load[J].Jilin Electric Power,2008,36(6). |
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| Authors: | XIAO Jian-hua LIU Bin-tao JIANG Bin |
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| Abstract: | According to the difficult work of annual peak load forecasting,which is affected by different kinds of factors in power load forecasting,the probability forecasting model for regional grid annual peak load is proposed.Grey model and regression model are established to forecast the mean and the unbiased variance respectively,which are the two important parameters of the probability forecasting model.The probability forecasting model shows higher accuracy by calculation cases. |
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| Keywords: | probability forecasting annual peak load regional grid |
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