基于CFS预报产品的水电站水库预泄决策方法

针对降雨预报不确定性带来的汛期预泄风险问题，提出基于CFS预报产品的水电站水库预泄决策方法。利用CFS历史预报数据，建立不同预见期特定预报降雨条件下的实际降雨和入库流量的概率分布，计算不同库水位和发电决策组合下的弃水风险率。在常规调度的基础上，根据CFS降雨预报信息，以弃水风险率为决策依据，以优化的弃水风险率阈值为预泄幅度的定量指标进行调度。实例研究表明，该方法简便易行，充分利用了降雨预报信息，在汛期可提供定量化预泄决策，兼顾了效益与风险，达到了减小弃水的同时增大发电量的目的。

Flood Pre-discharge Decision of Hydropower Station Reservoir Based on CFS Forecasting

In allusion to the risk of reservoir pre-discharge during flood season that brought by the uncertainty of rainfall forecasting, a CFS based scheduling method of reservoir pre-discharge is proposed. The historical forecasting data of CFS are used to establish the probability distribution of real rainfall and inflow under different certain forecasting rainfall rank in different certain forecasting period. Then the corresponding risk rate of spillage water is calculated under different combined reservoir water level and dispatching decision. At the same time, it adjusts the primary dispatching decision from conventional dispatching map to meet the risk confine, which means to take the simulating optimized risk threshold as the quantitative indicator to control flood pre-discharge. The application results show that the proposed method is a simple and useful way to provide quantitative flood pre-discharge dispatching decisions, which can make full use of CFS rainfall forecasting; it also balances the benefit and risk, achieves the goal of reducing the amount of spillage water and increases energy output of hydropower station.