| 基于AMSAA增长模型的鱼雷系统Bayes可靠性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛昭勇,宋保维,胡海豹,郑珂.基于AMSAA增长模型的鱼雷系统Bayes可靠性分析[J].兵工学报,2009,30(10):1401-1404. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛昭勇 宋保维 胡海豹 郑珂 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北工业大学,航海学院,陕西,西安,710072;中国舰船研究院,北京,100097 |
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| 摘 要： | Bayes理论是分析研究鱼雷系统可靠性的有效方法，文中针对美国陆军装备系统分析中心( AMSAA)增长模型，提出了Bayes可靠性增长分析的基本方法。该方法将鱼雷研制阶段的可靠性增长试验数据作为产品可靠性评估的先验信息，再结合少量现场试验数据，运用Bayes方法即可对现场试验后的鱼雷产品可靠性进行评定。仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性，为鱼雷系统可靠性评定提供了一种新的分析方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 应用统计数学 可靠性增长 AMSAA模型 Bayes分析 |
The Bayes Reliability Evaluation Method Based on AMSAA Model for Torpedo System |
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| MAO Zhao-yong,SONG Bao-wei,HU Hai-bao,ZHENG Ke.The Bayes Reliability Evaluation Method Based on AMSAA Model for Torpedo System[J].Acta Armamentarii,2009,30(10):1401-1404. |
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| Authors: | MAO Zhao-yong SONG Bao-wei HU Hai-bao ZHENG Ke |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Marine Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, Shaanxi, China;
2. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, Beijing 100097, China |
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| Abstract: | The Bayesian method was adopted as an important and suitable approach to the reliability analysis and evaluation for torpedo system, because of its complexity and small sample tests. The reliability growth Bayesian method for the model of army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) was proposed, which can obtain the prior distribution based on the test information of reliability growth, combined with the small sample experiment data, the reliability evaluation was calculated by Bayesian method. The simulated result by an example shows that the method proposed is effective, and provides a new method for evaluating reliability of torpedo system. |
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| Keywords: | applied statistical mathematics reliability growth army material system analysis activity model Bayesian analysis |
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