A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city |
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Authors: | Kei Gomi Kouji Shimada Yuzuru Matsuoka |
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Affiliation: | 1. Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto-Daigaku Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8530, Japan;2. Faculty of Economics, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1 Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shiga 525-8577, Japan;3. Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto-Daigaku Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8530, Japan |
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Abstract: | On May 2008, Kyoto city government set up a low-carbon target of a 50% GHG reduction by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. To contribute to these discussions, we developed a local (city-scale) low-carbon scenario creation method. An estimation model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. The model can explicitly treat the uncertainty of future socio-economic situations, which originate from the openness of local economy. The method was applied to Kyoto city, and countermeasures to achieve the low-carbon target were identified. Without countermeasures, emissions would increase 12% from 2000. Among the measures, the reduction potential of energy efficiency improvements to residential and commercial sectors was found to be relatively large (15% and 18% of total reductions, respectively). The reduction potential of the passenger transport sector, in which the city government's policy is especially important, was 17% of the total amount. A sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% increase in exports leads to an 8.5% increase in CO2 emissions, and a 20% increase in the share of the commuters from outside the city leads to a 3.5% decrease of CO2 emissions because of the smaller number of residents in the city. |
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Keywords: | Low-carbon society Local environmental policy Backcasting |
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