| 基于多项式拟合和GM(1，1)模型在煤矿伤亡事故中的数据预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨国颖,王庆岭. 基于多项式拟合和GM(1，1)模型在煤矿伤亡事故中的数据预测模型[J]. 电气自动化, 2016, 0(1): 12-14, 22. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3886.2016.01.005 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨国颖 王庆岭 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州石化职业技术学院,甘肃兰州,730060 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省财政厅专项资金立项资助(甘财教[2013]116号) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过建立多项式拟合模型找出影响预测结果的异常数据,剔除后建立GM(1,1)模型。对某集团1991年-2003年的伤亡事故统计数据,运用MATLAB工具箱,由图形观测和相对误差分析,提高了模型预测的准确性和适应性,其预测精度大幅提高,预测期望值高于单一的多项式拟合和灰色预测模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 煤矿事故 预测 多项式拟合GM(1,1) MATLAB工具箱 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-05-13 |
A Data Prediction Model for Coal Mine Casualties Based on Polynomial Fitting and GM (1,1) Model |
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| YANG Guo-ying and WANG Qing-ling. A Data Prediction Model for Coal Mine Casualties Based on Polynomial Fitting and GM (1,1) Model[J]. Electrical Automation, 2016, 0(1): 12-14, 22. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3886.2016.01.005 |
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| Authors: | YANG Guo-ying and WANG Qing-ling |
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| Affiliation: | Lanzhou Petrochemical Vocational and Technical Institute, Lanzhou Gansu 730060, China and Lanzhou Petrochemical Vocational and Technical Institute, Lanzhou Gansu 730060, China |
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| Abstract: | Abnormal data affecting prediction results is detected by establishing a polynomial fitting model, and GM (1,1) model is established after elimination. With respect to the statistic casualties of a group company in the period of 1991-2003, we use the MATLAB toolbox to make graphical observation and relative error analysis, thus improving the accuracy and adaptability of model prediction. Its prediction expectation is higher than that of a single polynomial fitting or grey prediction model. |
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| Keywords: | coal mine accident prediction polynomial fitting GM (1,1) MATLAB toolbox |
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