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| 黄河中下游天然年径流变化趋势预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 张少文,张学成,王玲,丁晶. 黄河中下游天然年径流变化趋势预测[J]. 人民黄河, 2011, 33(6). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2011.06.001 |
| 作者姓名： | 张少文 张学成 王玲 丁晶 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京市水利科学研究所,北京,100048 2. 黄河水文水资源科学研究所,河南郑州,450004 3. 四川大学水电学院,四川成都,610065 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50239050),国家自然科学基金资助项目(50249024,40271024) |
| 摘 要： | 基于神经网络理论与传统分析方法,采用改进的BP网络算法,利用黄河陕县水文站531 a天然年径流时间序列,建立了黄河中下游年径流长期变化的BP网络预测模型,并以此模型对2001—2050年黄河中下游天然年径流变化趋势进行了预测分析,结果表明:①中下游天然年径流在未来50 a变化的大趋势是丰水时段比枯水时段略占优势,要经历2001—2020年相对丰水时段、2021—2026年相对枯水时段、2027—2037年相对丰水时段及2038—2050年相对枯水时段;②黄河中下游与上游的天然年径流变化的大趋势基本一致,但中下游出现连续枯水时段的时间较上游长。 |
| 关 键 词： | BP网络 天然年径流 预测 黄河中下游 |
Prediction on Variation Tendency of Natural Annual Runoff of the Middle and Lower Yellow River |
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| ZHANG Shao-wen,ZHANG Xue-cheng,WANG Ling,DING Jing. Prediction on Variation Tendency of Natural Annual Runoff of the Middle and Lower Yellow River[J]. Yellow River, 2011, 33(6). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2011.06.001 | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Shao-wen ZHANG Xue-cheng WANG Ling DING Jing |
| Affiliation: | ZHANG Shao-wen1,ZHANG Xue-cheng2,WANG Ling2,DING Jing3(1.Beijing Hydraulic Research Institute,Beijing 100048,2.Yellow River Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources,Zhengzhou,Henan 450004,3.Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610065) |
| Abstract: | The paper builds BP network predictive model of long-term variation of annual runoff of the middle and lower Yellow River by using improved algorithm of BP network and the time series of natural annual runoff of Shaanxian Hydrometric Station on the Yellow River in 531 years based on neural network theory and traditional analysis.It conducts predictive analysis on the variation trend of natural annual runoff of the middle and lower Yellow River during the period of 2001-2050 by using the model.The outcomes s... |
| Keywords: | BP network natural annual runoff prediction 2001-2050 period the middle and lower Yellow River |
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