基于储量增长模型和概率分析的大油气田储量增长评价方法及其在中东地区的应用

全球每年约有70%的新增油气储量来源于已发现大油气田的储量增长。基于单个大油气田储量增长因素的概率分析和大油气田产、储量统计分析,提出了储量增长评价新方法,建立了中东地区大油气田储量增长模型,并进行了潜力预测。研究表明,预测截至2042年Halfaya油气田储量增长的因素为提高采收率、储量升级、油田扩边、发现新层系,所引起的石油储量增长分别为30.8×10~8桶、7.5×10~8桶、4.3×10~8桶和3.2×10~8桶,所引起的天然气储量增长分别为0.8×10~8桶油当量、2.7×10~8桶油当量、2.7×10~8桶油当量和5.7×10~8桶油当量;中东地区大油田和大气田储量增长变化趋势较为相似,储量增长高峰期主要位于开发早期和中期;截至2042年中东地区167个大油田储量增长潜力为2103×10~8桶,64个大气田储量增长潜力为1018×10~8桶油当量;用同一个样本点对概率法和统计法的研究结果进行了验证,两种方法吻合程度较高。该方法通过解剖个体特征,分析整体规律,由已知推测未知,实现了统计法、概率法和地质分析法的有机结合,可以进一步用于全球大油气田储量增长研究。

Evaluation method for increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields based on reserves growth model & probability analysis and its application in Middle East

In the whole world, approximately 70 percent of new oil and gas reserves are contributed by the increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields discovered every year. In order to study the variation law of reserves growth of large oil-gas fields in the Middle East, a new evaluation method is put forward based on probability analysis of reserves growth factor for a large oil-gas field and statistical analysis of the output and reserves of large oil-gas fields. Moreover, reserves growth models are established for large oil-gas fields in the Middle East, as predicting the growth potentiality. Results show that reserves growth factors of the Halfaya oilfield in 2042 mainly include enhanced oil recovery, reserves promotion, oilfield expansion and discovery of new reservoirs, which leads to the increased amounts of oil reserves are 3.08, 0.75, 0.43 and 0.32 BBOE respectively, and those of gas reserves are 0.08, 0.27, 0.27 and 0.57 BBOE respectively. In the Middle East, the reserves growth trend of large oil fields is similar to that of large gas fields, and growth peaks mainly appeared in early and middle stages of the oil-gas fields exploitation. It is predicted that in the next 30 years the amounts of the potential reserves growth of 167 large oil fields in the Middle East will up to 201.3 BBOE, while those of the potential growth of 64 large gas fields is 101.8 BBOE. The same sample point is used to verify the research results obtained by probability and statistics methods, both of which fit with each other well. Through analyzing individual characteristics and overall laws, and deducing the unknown from the known, this evaluation method integrates probability and statistics methods with geologic analysis, and can be further applied to investigate the reserves growth of global oil-gas fields.