| 非参数自回归方法在短期电力负荷预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 赵渊,张夏菲,谢开贵.非参数自回归方法在短期电力负荷预测中的应用[J].高电压技术,2011,37(2):429-435. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 赵渊 张夏菲 谢开贵 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆,400030
2. 广东电网公司广州供电局,广州,510620 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目(2007DA10512709103); 国家自然科学基金(5060702150977094)~~ |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了避免短期负荷预测中主观因素的影响,采用非参数核密度估计技术建立了基于数据驱动的非参数自回归模型,从而将短期电力负荷预测看作一个非线性时间序列预测问题,并从历史负荷数据本身出发挖掘负荷变动的内在随机分布规律.非参数自回归模型详细考虑了滞后阶数的选择、平滑参数(宽窗)的确定以及预测置信区间计算.通过对某一实际电力系统的...
|
| 关 键 词： | 非参数自回归 N-W 核估计 局部多项式估计 负荷预测 数据驱动 置信区间 |
Application of Nonparametric Auto-regression to Short-term Load Forecasting |
| |
| ZHAO Yuan
,
ZHANG Xia-fei
,
XIE Kai-gui.Application of Nonparametric Auto-regression to Short-term Load Forecasting[J].High Voltage Engineering,2011,37(2):429-435. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHAO Yuan ZHANG Xia-fei XIE Kai-gui |
| |
| Affiliation: | ZHAO Yuan1,ZHANG Xia-fei2,XIE Kai-gui1(1.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China,2.Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation,Guangzhou 510620,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to avoid the influence of human subjective experience on short-term load forecasting,utilizing the nonparametric kernel density estimation technique,a data-driven approach named nonparametric auto-regression model is presented.Thereby,the short-term load forecasting is considered as nonlinear time series prediction,and the intrinsic randomness associated with a load forecast can be explored from the historical load data itself.The key issues in this model are discussed in detail,such as the selecti... |
| |
| Keywords: | nonparametric auto-regression Nadaraya-Watson estimator local polynomial regression estimator load forecasting data driven confidence interval |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
