基于可拓-Markov沥青路面使用性能预测模型实现

根据目前路面管理系统路面使用性能模型以及存在的问题，提出采用可拓概念区间化路面破损状况指标PCI的优、良、中、差划分，形成沥青路面在综合作用下的Markov过程，利用最小二乘法估计一步转移概率矩阵，从而建立PCI单指标评价可拓-Markov预测模型，并通过实例研究证实了可拓一Markov预测模型的优势。

Based on extension-Markov chain asphalt pavement performance prediction models to achieve

This paper analyzes the current management system for pavement performance model and of questions, using the conceptualization of extension among indicators PCI of the excellent, good, modium and poor division. The establishment of Markov process bases on asphalt concrete pavement under the comprehensive performance, the least square method conculates one step Markov transition probability matrix, thus the formation of extension-Markov chain performance to evaluate the PCI prediction alone. Through case studies the paper confirmed extension-Markov prediction model is superior for the prediction to practical problems.