枫树坝水库洪水实时预报校正方法研究

枫树坝水库降雨径流概念性模型的建立及其自动采集系统的完善，为枫树坝水库洪水实时预报校正研究提供了前提条件。概念性水文模型考虑因素尽管样全面，但汇流经验单位线计算流量过程精度有待提高。基于洪水预报误差信息，对一价自回归模型自适应递推、二阶自回归自适应递推和卡尔曼滤波校正方法进行研究分析。实际洪水与模拟计算结果对比分析表明，二阶自加归递推和卡尔曼滤波校正计算方法提高了洪水预报精度。

Study on the Method of Real Time Flood Forecasting Correction for Fengshuba Reservoir

The founding of rainfall runoff conceptional model for Fengshuba Reservoir and perfection of its auto- matic collection system have provided premisses for the study on real time flood forecasting correction for Feng- shuba Reservoir. Although the conceptional hydrologic medel has taken all-around factors into account, the accu- racy of discharge hydrograph calculated by empirical concentration unit graph is yet to be improved. Based on the control information of flood forecasting, studies have been carried out on the methods of self adapting parar-neters estimation algorithm and Kalman filtering AR(2) model. The results show that self adapting recursion of second order autoregressive correction model and Kalman filtering algorithm are more efficient and accurate for the reservoir flood forecast.