我国人口、经济和水足迹的空间关系测度及其脱钩关系分析

为探讨人口、经济发展与用水三者之间的联系,利用空间重心测度方法,探寻三者的动态转移轨迹及时间变化规律;构建脱钩分析模型,分析评价用水与经济发展和人口增长两者之间的协调关系。结果表明,我国水足迹重心的地理位置变化幅度较人口和GDP重心大,水足迹-人口和水足迹-GDP之间的空间协调性差异均为东西方向大,南北方向小;部分中部省份水足迹-GDP和水足迹-人口之间的脱钩关系由相对脱钩转化为绝对脱钩,而部分沿海省份则发生着相反的变化,但总体来说呈未脱钩状态的地区逐渐减少。

Spatial Relation Measurement and Decoupling Analysis of Population, Economy and Water Footprint in China

In order to discuss the complex and close link among population, economic development and water, dynamic shift track and time change regulation of these three factors were explored from the perspective of space gravity center. And then the decoupling model was established to assess the coordinated relationship between water utilization and economic growth or population. The results show that the change range of water footprint gravity center was larger than population and GDP; spatial coordination differences between water footprint and population and between water footprint and GDP were larger in east-west direction than in north-south direction; decoupling relationship of water footprint and GDP or water footprint and population in some central provinces changed from relative decoupling to absolute decoupling, while opposite changes happened in some coastal provinces, and there is a gradual decrease in non-decoupled areas in general.