大数据背景下考虑删失特点的继保设备运行状态评估

未能记录到设备失效准确时间的失效数据称为删失数据。针对大数据背景下继保设备失效数据存在删失的特点，提出了大数据背景下考虑删失数据的继保设备运行状态评估方法。首先，通过对继保设备失效数据进行特点分析，对失效数据进行预处理，利用期望-最大化（EM）算法并结合指数分布和威布尔分布模型，估计继保设备失效模型的参数。其次，将参数估计值代入失效模型中，得到设备的可靠度、故障概率密度、失效率、平均无故障时间等可靠性指标。然后，通过仿真验证对比分析偶然失效期和老化失效期内不同估计方法得到的模型参数精度，验证了文中方法处理删失数据的有效性。最后，以某型号继保设备为例分析可靠性指标，验证了利用文中方法规划设备检修周期的可行性。

Operating status assessment of protective equipment considering censored characteristics under background of big data

Failure data without exact observed failure time of equipment is referred to as censored data. Aiming at the characteristics of censored failure data of protective equipment under the background of big data,a method for evaluating the operating life of protective equipment considering censored data under the background of big data is proposed. Firstly,based on analyzing failure-data features of protective equipment,the failure data were preprocessed. By combining the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm with the exponential distribution model and the weibull distribution model,failure model parameters of protective equipment were estimated. Secondly,the estimated parameters are substituted into the failure model to obtain reliability indices,such as the reliability,failure probability density,failure rate,and meantime between failures. Subsequently,through simulation study,the estimation accuracy of model parameters in accidental-failure and aging-failure periods obtained by different methods was comparatively analyzed,and the effectiveness of the proposed method for processing censored data was verified. Finally,taking a certain type of protective equipment as an example to investigate reliability indices,the feasibility of applying this method to plan equipment maintenance cycle is verified.