基于生态足迹的宜宾市生态安全动态研究

以可持续发展观为指导，利用生态足迹评价模型，计算宜宾市1985-2005年生态足迹，分析宜宾市的生态安全状况。结果表明，1985-2005年宜宾市人均生态足迹动态变化幅度较大，总体呈逐年上升趋势；人均生态承载力呈下降趋势，生态承载力结构具有不对称性，以耕地为主；人均生态赤字变化幅度较大，1985年后出现不同程度的生态赤字，2005年出现严重的生态赤字；1985-2005年生态足迹压力指数呈现增长趋势，增幅显著。宜宾市生态安全程度持续降低，经历了安全状态-稍不安全-较不安全-极不安全的发展阶段，人类的生活、生产对宜宾市生态安全的压力越来越大，宜宾市未来土地资源的供需矛盾越来越突出。

DYNAMIC STUDY ON ECOLOGICAL SAFETY BASED ON ECO-FOOTPRINT IN YIBIN

This paper, aiming at the sustainable development, uses the eco-footprint model to calculate the eco-footprint during 1985-2005 in Yibin city, and analyzes the eco-footprint safety, with results indicating a big dynamic change in per capital eco-footprint, increasing trend in general, decreasing trend in per capital eco-loads with asymmetric structure (chiefly, plowlands). The per capital eco-deficit fluctuated largely, emerging since 1985, to some extent, becoming severe in 2005. The eco-footprint pressure index displays an increasing trend from 1985 to 2005. The ecological safety becomes continuously decreasing, undergoing safe, less safe, unsafe, and very unsafe stages. Human’s living and production has a bigger and bigger impact over eco-footprint safety. The land demands and supply will become sharp in the future in Yibin city.