我国卷烟需求分析(下)-卷烟需求模型实证分析与结论

运用1997~2002年中国烟草行业和相关的宏观经济数据,对我国卷烟需求模型进行了实证分析,研究表明,居民消费支出、卷烟价格、地区差异、经济增长、产业升级、城镇居民恩格尔系数、农村居民消费支出,以及卷烟平均消费倾向变化对我国卷烟需求均有显著影响。中国卷烟需求增长的潜力市场在中西部和农村,在当前良好的宏观经济条件下,卷烟需求增长是市场作用的客观结果,卷烟生产每年增长3%~4%才能初步缓解市场需求矛盾。

A analysis of cigarette demand in China ( Ⅱ )-demonstration analysis and conclusion

Relevant data of cigarette industry and macroeconomic indicators from1997 to 2002 were used to analyze cigarette demand model of China's market. Empirical results indicated that residents consumption expenditure, cigarette price, regional difference, economic growth, industry upgrade,Engle Coefficient of urban residents, consumption expenditure of rural residents, and average propensity to cigarette consumption on cigarette demand had significant impacts on cigarette demand. Potential market of cigarette demand was in the middle-west and rural area in China. Under healthy macroeconomic conditions, growth of cigarette demand mainly resulted from market function, and supply-demand pressure cannot be moderated unless cigarette production is increased by 3-4% annually.