Estimating water deficit and its uncertainties in water-scarce area using integrated modeling approach |
| |
| Authors: | Shou-ke WEI |
| |
| Affiliation: | Eawag, the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf CH-8600, Switzerland ;Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia,Vancouver BC-V6T 1Z4, Canada;Emodlogic Technology Inc., Vancouver BC-V5P 3R1, Canada |
| |
| Abstract: | Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas. |
| |
| Keywords: | water deficit hybrid model conceptual water balance model stepwise multiple regression method uncertainty Beijing |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
