基于灰色模型群的软岩巷道围岩变形预测

随着煤炭资源逐步转向深部开采,软岩巷道的支护问题显得尤为突出,巷道围岩变形监测及预测对巷道支护设计、维护等具有重要的指导意义。传统的预测方法多基于岩体力学理论,计算过程较为复杂。以巷道围岩变形原始数据作为参考数列,结合灰色系统理论,构建基于全数据GM(1,1)、新信息GM(1,1)、新陈代谢GM(1,1)等3类预测模型的软岩巷道围岩变形预测灰色模型群,并将其应用于预测某矿软岩巷道顶底板及两帮围岩变形位移。结果表明,利用该灰色模型群进行巷道围岩变形预测的精度较高,能较好地顾及围岩变形新信息对预测精度的影响,使得预测结果更加符合实际。

Prediction of Surrounding Rock Deformation in Roadway with Soft Rock Based on Grey Model Groups

With the increasing of mining depth，more and more problems in roadway supporting with soft rock are becoming serious.The deformation monitoring and predicting of surrounding rock have important guiding significance for the roadway supporting design and maintenance.The traditional forecasting method is mainly based on the rock mechanics，with complex calculation.Based on the original survey data of the surrounding rock deformation in tunnels，and with the aid of the grey theory，the grey prediction model groups of the soft surrounding rock deformation in tunnels is established，including all data GM(1,1) model，new information GM(1,1) model and metabolism GM(1,1) model.Then，the grey model groups are used to predict the surrounding rock deformation of the roof and floor and the two sides of roadway with soft rock.The research results show that，the grey model groups own a high precision in predicting the deformation.It can reflect the influence of the new information of surrounding deformation to the prediction results and make the prediction results more consistent with the actual situation of surrounding deformation.