Two-Stage Interval-Parameter Stochastic Programming Model Based on Adaptive Water Resource Management

Water resource planning is often associated with system complexities and uncertainties, such as issues of precipitation randomness and complex the complexity of human social activities. In this study, a two-stage interval-parameter stochastic programming (TISP) model in conjunction with an adaptive water resource management (AWRM) model was applied. Compared to other optimization models, AWRM can address interactions between different water users and account for regional water exchange processes, and TISP models overcome the uncertainties of a water resource system by introducing interval-parameter and probability distribution methods. Reasonable solutions obtained by applying these models to a multi-water-resource, multi-region case show that in AWRM models, water can flow from a region of low efficiency to a region of high efficiency, improving water use efficiency. Under conditions of extreme scarcity, water can flow in the opposite direction thus ensuring regional minimum water requirements, enhancing system stability and reducing the probability of system paralysis. In policy making, optimistic water policies correspond to higher incomes but may be subject to higher risks of system failure. Alternatively, conservative policies are associated with a lower risk of system failure but easily waste water resources.