| 关于电力市场下系统边际价格概率模型的新研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑华,张粒子,谢莉,申景娜. 关于电力市场下系统边际价格概率模型的新研究[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2004, 24(11): 74-79 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑华 张粒子 谢莉 申景娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学电气工程学院,北京市,昌平区,102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决多影响事件下电价条件概率的求解难题，本文首次提出了适用于独立发电商的系统边际价格条件概率求解新模型。该模型根据独立分量分析技术，挖掘电价独立影响事件集，将电价条件概率问题分解为多个独立影响事件的无条件概率及其与系统边际价格之间的单条件概率问题，从而实现了电价概率模型的有效求解。实例数据验证了本文模型的有效性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 边际价格 电价 电力市场 系统 发电商 影响 概率模型 事件 条件概率 实例数据 |
| 文章编号： | 0258-8013(2004)11-0074-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-08 |
STUDY ON THE PROBABILITY MODEL OF SYSTEM MARGINAL PRICE IN ELECTRICITY MARKET |
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| ZHENG Hua,ZHANG Li-zi,XIE Li,SHEN Jing-na. STUDY ON THE PROBABILITY MODEL OF SYSTEM MARGINAL PRICE IN ELECTRICITY MARKET[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2004, 24(11): 74-79 |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Hua ZHANG Li-zi XIE Li SHEN Jing-na |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel way for generationcompanies to find SMP conditional probability based onindependent component analysis (abbr. ICA). According to ICA, SMP independence influence event set are mined, whosecomponents are mutually independent. By using SMPindependent influence event set, this paper builds newcomputation model of SMP conditional probability, whichdecomposes SMP multi-conditional probability into severalmarginal probabilities and one-conditional probabilities of each independent influence event and SMP. So SMP conditionalprobability is finally acquired successfully. |
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| Keywords: | Electricity Market System Marginal Price Conditional Probability Independent Component Analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
