基于GLUE的垂向混合产流模型参数不确定性分析

水文模型能将复杂的水文现象和过程进行概化,其不确定性研究已成为模型研究的重要方向之一。以半湿润地区洛河流域为研究区域,构建了基于垂向混合产流模型的流域产流模拟模型,采用GLUE方法并结合5项相关指标对构建的模型进行不确定性分析。结果表明:使用GLUE方法对垂向混合产流模型进行不确定性评估和参数优选过程中,在置信度为95%的前提下,模型预报区间的覆盖率达到87.5%,对称度S和T接近于0,数据模拟对称度良好。

Uncertainty analysis of vertical mixed runoff model parameters with GLUE method

Hydrological model can generalize the complicated hydrological phenomenon and processes, and the uncertainty of hydrological models is one of the important directions of the model research.Based on the 5 years' runoff data of Luohe River Basin in semi-humid area, we established a vertical mixed runoff hydrological model and analyzed its uncertainty by using GLUE method and combining with 5 relevant indicators.The results show that in uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization for the vertical mixed runoff model by GLUE method, under the confidence level of 95%, the model forecast interval coverage reaches 87.5%, the parameter S and T are closed to 0, which means that the simulated data have great degree of symmetry.