水利工程影响下的洪水预报研究进展

水利工程的大规模修建严重影响了流域自然条件下的水文循环过程,大大降低了流域洪水预报精度,考虑水利工程影响的洪水预报已经成为国内外水文学领域研究的重难点问题之一。综述了国内外水利工程对洪水影响的研究,并基于影响机制,从概念性集总模型改进法、分布式水文模型法和水文学与水力学耦合法等角度分析了国内外考虑水利工程影响的洪水预报研究成果,提出了未来相关研究的建议。未来需要在不断加深对水利工程影响机理认识的基础上,加强水利工程的普查力度,分离不同水利工程的影响贡献,寻找更具普适性的研究方法。

Advances in flood forecasting under impacts of water projects

The massive construction of water projects exerts a great influence on natural hydrologic cycle in the basin, which tremendously reduces the accuracy of flood forecasting.Flood forecasting considering the impacts of water projects is becoming one of the key and difficult issues in hydrology study.This paper summarizes the researches on impacts of water projects to floods at home and abroad, analyzes the achievements of researches on flood forecasting considering water project impacts from the aspects of improved conceptual lumped model, distributed hydrology model,coupled hydrology and hydraulics methods,etc.and puts forward the research suggestions in the future.Future researches should take a deeper insight into the water project impact mechanism, strengthen the general survey of water projects, separate different impact contribution from water projects and search a more universal method.