水电站水击与调压室涌浪随机分析研究进展

综述水电站水击与调压室涌浪随机分析的研究现状、最新进展、需进一步研究的问题与可采用的研究方法。认为水电站水击压力与调压室水位波动过程是以时间为参数的随机过程，对其进行随机分析，对结构可靠度设计尤为重要。目前应对有关影响因素的随机特性进行实地调查与统计分析，并在此基础上建立水击与调压室涌浪随机分析数学模型；针对分项系数极限状态结构设计的要求，采用适宜的随机分析方法（如ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ数值模拟方法）得出水击压力与调压室涌浪极值的概率分布特性，为结构可靠度分析提供荷载概率依据。

Progress of Stochastic Analysis on Waterhammer and Surge at Hydropower Stations

The Purpose,Progress and methods of stochastic analysis on waterhammer and surge at hydro power stations,and the problems which need to be researched further,are presented in this paper.It is considered that the change of waterhammer pressures and surge height with time is a stochastical process.The probability distributions of random variables affecting them should be investigated and analysesed first,and then their stochastical model could be established,and appropriate study methods could be adopted (e.g.,Monee carlo),So that their probability distributions could be obtained and used in risk analysis of structures.