基于跳转模型的路网交通流预测

针对城市道路交通流复杂的非线性特征,采用基于跳转的ARIMA模型研究交通流的变化规律,以获得城市道路短期交通流的精确预测.引入路口转弯比例矩阵来描述路网的交通流状态.考虑在路网畅通和路网拥堵情况下路口转弯比例矩阵的不同特征,对两种情况分别进行研究.结合路段交通流预测模型,对路网交通流进行预测.仿真算例表明,所提出的预测模型能较好地用于路网交通流预测.

Traffic network flow forecasting based on switching model

For the nonlinearity of complicated urban traffic flow,a switching autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model is proposed and employed to explore how traffic flow varies with time,so that accurate predictions can be obtained.The turning proportion matrix is introduced to describe the traffic network states.Considering the difference characters of the turning proportion matrix between congestion case and discongestion case,two formulas are proposed to forecast the network traffic flow.The simulati...