地铁隧道施工坍塌风险耦合机理研究

通过对我国2004—2018年间71例地铁隧道施工坍塌事故案例研究,发现地铁建设过程中出现的一系列微小的、不可预见的风险因子与风险主体状态及风险响应机制间存在着交互耦合关系,这些耦合作用使得风险系统所积蓄的风险能量突破安全阈值,从而导致安全事故的发生。针对上述安全事故成因分析,以城市地铁隧道施工坍塌风险耦合机理为研究对象,基于PSR-IAHP模型,分析地铁隧道施工坍塌事故发生的致因因子(P)、风险主体所处的状态(S)、风险管理响应(R)三者间的动态变化和作用机理,构建了地铁隧道施工坍塌风险耦合体系并进行了权重分析和计算。并结合灰色关联分析,以坍塌事故发生次数为特征指标,以风险耦合体系的11个指标为因素序列,以灰色关联度计算为基础,提出风险耦合度模型并进行计算。研究表明:影响地铁隧道坍塌事故发生的3个子系统及各因素序列间确实存在耦合作用,且多为“强耦合”,该研究结果可为城市地铁隧道施工坍塌风险断层控制提供理论基础。

Research on Coupling Mechanism of Collapse Risk in Metro Tunnel Construction

Through the case study of 71 subway tunnel construction collapse accidents in China from 2004 to 2018, it is found that there are a series of tiny and unpredictable risk factors in the subway construction process, and there are interactions among the risk factors, subject status, and response mechanism. These coupling effect makes the risk energy accumulated by the risk system break through the safety threshold, which leads to the occurrence of safety accidents. According to the analysis of the causes of the above-mentioned safety accidents, the coupling mechanism of urban subway tunnel construction collapse risk are taken as the research object. Based on the PSR-IAHP model, to analyze the dynamic change and mechanism of action among the cause factor (P) of collapse accident in subway tunnel construction, the state of the risk subject (S) and risk management response (R), the coupling system of collapse risk of subway tunnel construction was constructed and the weight analysis and calculation were carried out. Combined with the gray correlation analysis, the number of collapse accidents was taken as the characteristic index. And the 11 indicators of the risk coupling system were taken as the factor sequence. Based on the grey correlation degree calculation, the risk coupling degree model was proposed and calculated. The research shows that there are indeed coupling effects between the three subsystems and the sequence of factors that affect the collapse of a subway tunnel, and most of them are “strong coupling”. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the collapse risk control of urban subway tunnel construction.