基于链路和项目特征的地铁车站进度管理研究

为了解决潜在风险因素对地铁车站施工进度的制约,提高地铁车站项目关键链缓冲区设置的有效性,引入关键链技术,在其缓冲区设置时综合考虑链路和项目特征不确定性因素。首先,分析、量化链路不确定因素对地铁车站项目进度的影响,同时,采用WBS工作分解法和风险检查表法,识别地铁车站施工项目的进度不确定性因素;然后,结合链路和项目特征不确定因素,建立不确定性指标体系,采用改进的灰色关联分析法确定安全系数,计算缓冲区大小,并通过西安S地铁车站项目实例加以验证。最后将新方法结果与剪贴粘贴法、根方差法得到的结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明,此方法得到的关键链缓冲更为合理、稳定,可以有效缩短项目工期。

Metro Station Project Schedule Management Based on Link and Project Characteristics

In order to solve the restriction of potential risk factors on the construction schedule of subway station and improve the effectiveness of the key chain buffer setting of subway station project, the key chain technology is introduced to comprehensively consider the uncertainty factors of link and project characteristics when setting the buffer. Firstly, the impact of link uncertainties on the progress of subway station projects is analyzed and quantified. At the same time, WBS work decomposition method and risk checklist method are adopted to identify the uncertain factors of the progress of subway station construction projects, and the uncertain factors are quantified according to the right weight analysis method of engineering geological conditions of the project. Then, combined with the feature of link and the project uncertainty, establishes an index system of subway station project construction schedule uncertainty, the calculation of the influence of uncertain factors on the buffer size, improved grey relation analysis method in solving factors distinguish coefficient, improve the calculation precision of the grey correlation degree, with the improved grey association analysis method to determine safety coefficient, calculate the buffer size, and through Xi'an S subway station project examples to prove. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to analyze the effectiveness of the buffer calculated by this method, and the results of the new method are compared with those obtained by cut-and-paste method and root variance method. The research results show that this method can not only set the safety time of each working procedure effectively according to the project characteristics, but also reduce the impact of uncertainty factors on the construction period, shorten the construction period, and put forward a new idea for the construction schedule management of subway station project.