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基于最小一乘法的组合赋权法在中长期负荷预测中的应用
引用本文:苗增强,武宏波,李婷,陈芳.基于最小一乘法的组合赋权法在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(2):28-31,36.
作者姓名:苗增强  武宏波  李婷  陈芳
作者单位:湖南大学电气与信息工程学院;郑州供电公司;
摘    要:中长期负荷预测是电网规划的重要依据和前提,出现了大量的算法模型,但每种模型都有自己的适用条件,采用组合预测能有效地组织各种模型做到扬长避短。组合预测法的关键是确定组合模型的权重,最小二乘法是应用较为广泛的确定模型权重的方法,但研究表明,该方法在确定负荷有突变情况的权重时存在较大的误差,因此,提出基于最小一乘法的权重确定方法,与最小二乘法相比,该方法以误差绝对值之和最小为优化目标,而非平方和最小,避免了误差的缩放,残差可以真实反映与真值的偏离程度,有利于权重的确定,最后通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和优越性。

关 键 词:负荷预测  组合预测法  组合赋权  最小一乘法  最小二乘法  

Application of combination determining weights method based on LAD to the power mid-long term load forecasting
MIAO Zeng-qiang,WU Hong-bo,LI Ting,CHEN Fang.Application of combination determining weights method based on LAD to the power mid-long term load forecasting[J].Power System Protection and Control,2009,37(2):28-31,36.
Authors:MIAO Zeng-qiang  WU Hong-bo  LI Ting  CHEN Fang
Affiliation:1.College of Electrical and Information Engineering;Hunan University;Changsha 410082;China;2.Zhengzhou Power Supply Company;Zhengzhou 450000;China
Abstract:Middle and long term load forecasting is an important base of transmission and distribution network planning,there are many algorithm models for long-term load forecasting.However,each model applies on some conditions.Combined forecasting can effective overcome the short of every model.The key of combined forecast method is how to fix the association weight.Least square method is used widely to confirm weights.Researches show that least-square method has big errors under the conditions of load sudden changi...
Keywords:load forecasting  combined forecast method  combination determining weights  LAD  least-square procedure  
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