城市化进程中电力消费弹性系数的演变历程研究

介绍我国近年来的缺电现状，初步分析电力消费弹性系数的历史变化，重点研究城市化率较高的北京、上海在城市化进程中电力消费结构及电力消费弹性系数的演变历程和变化规律，预测未来我国电力消费弹性系数的变化趋势，提出应对电力需求快速增长的措施。对于把握我国今后一个时期的电力消费特征和趋势，准确预测电力需求，具有参考意义。

Study on development course of power consumer flexible coefficient in urbanism process

This paper introduces the present situation of power shortage in China in recent years, and analyzes preliminarily historicalchange of power consumption flexible coefficient. The key to study is the development course and rules for power consumption structure andpower consumption flexible coefficient in urbanism process, especially for Beijing and Shanghai with higher citified rate. The future changetendency of the power consumption flexible coefficient in China is predicted, and the measures for solving fast increasing of power demandare put forward, which has reference meaning for holding the features and tendency of power consumption and forecasting accurately powerdemand in China in a period of the future.