基于历史投资成效的配电网投资分配方法及项目优选

近年来,配电网投资逐年增加,省级电网公司项目库中配电网项目个数也随之大幅增长。由于缺少量化评判标准,为了解决省公司在投资分配时,容易造成投资分配与实际投资需求出现偏差的问题,参考省级电网公司在投资分配时的流程,提出了结合历史投资成效的配电网投资迭代分配模型。首先建立配电网投资成效评价指标体系,其次依据历年投资数据,计算投资效率指数,并结合单项目的优选排序方法设定迭代分配模型的初始分配方案以及投资分配方案下的获批项目集,最后由投资效率指数计算投资成效预测值和获批项目集综合投资成效,并根据两个成效的差值迭代调整分配方案;实例分析验证了研究成果的有效性。

Distribution Network Investment Allocation and Project Opimization Method Considering the Historical Investment Effectiveness

In recent years,the distribution network investment has increased year by year,and the number of distribution network projects in the provincial project library has also increased significantly.It is easy to cause deviations between investment allocation and actual investment demand when the provincial grid company allocates investmentwithout quantitative evaluation criteria.Referring to the process of the provincial grid company in the allocation of investment,an iterative allocation model for distribution network investment combining historical investment results is proposed.Firstly,evaluation index system for distribution network investment effectiveness is constructed.Secondly,the initial allocation scheme of the iterative allocation model and the approved project set under the investment allocation scheme is set based on project optimal selection algorithm.Finally,the difference between the investment effectiveness of the approved project set and the forecast of investment effectiveness which is calculated according to the historical investment data is used to adjustment allocation scheme iteratively.The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified through the analysis of a practical example.