基于模糊网络的工程项目工期风险评估研究

目前,量化、半量化风险是工程项目风险分析的主流。考虑到工程项目建设的模糊性和随机性,本文提出一种基于模糊网络的工程项目工期风险评估方法,它比目前广泛应用的PERT技术更能反映工程项目的实际情况,尤其是在为施工单位提供工程项目工期风险决策方面,可以提供更加可靠的分析数据。最后,通过实际算例阐明应用该方法的具体过程。

Research on engineering project duration risk based on fuzzy network

At present, quantifiable analysis and half quantifiable analysis is the main trend to engineering project risk analysis. Considering the fuzzy character and randomicity of engineering project, this paper introduces a new evaluation method to project duration risk based on fuzzy network, it can more accurately reflect the real conditions of engineering project than PERT. Especially, it can offer more reliable data in engineering project risk decision for construction department. It gives an actual computational example to illustrates the whole process of this method.