| 利用灰色马尔可夫模型预测煤矿安全事故 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张林华,刘玉洲.利用灰色马尔可夫模型预测煤矿安全事故[J].煤炭科学技术,2006,34(11):26-30. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张林华 刘玉洲 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河南理工大学,安全科学与工程学院,河南,焦作,454003 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在煤矿事故死亡人数灰色预测的基础上引入马尔可夫链预测理论，建立了煤矿事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型，该模型兼有灰色预测和马尔可夫预测的优点，不仅提高了波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度，同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。实例证明灰色马尔可夫模型预测精度明显高于灰色GM（1，1）残差修正模型预测精度，从而说明灰色马尔可夫模型预测煤矿事故死亡人数的发展规律是可行有效的。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 马尔可夫链预测 煤矿安全 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-2336(2006)11-0026-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 06 9 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月9日 |
Application of Grey Markov Mode to predict mine safety accident |
| |
| ZHANG Lin-hua,LIU Yu-zhou.Application of Grey Markov Mode to predict mine safety accident[J].Coal Science and Technology,2006,34(11):26-30. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Lin-hua LIU Yu-zhou |
| |
| Affiliation: | School of Safety Science and Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Base on the grey prediction of the fatality number in a mine accident, the Markov chains prediction theory was introduced to build a grey Markov prediction model of mine accident, The model with a grey prediction function and a Markov prediction function can not only improve the high change random prediction accuracy and also develop the application range of the grey prediction. The practices showed that the prediction accuracy of the grey Markov model was higher than the prediction accuracy of the grey residue revised model. Therefore the grey Markov model to predict the development law of fatality number in a mine accident is feasible and efficient. |
| |
| Keywords: | grey prediction Markov chain prediction mine safety |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
