不确定需求下带约束供应链系统复杂动态行为分析

研究不同需求模式下, 同时存在供应能力限制和不允许退货两个约束条件的非线性供应链系统的动态行为. 通过计算订货决策空间中各种组合下的最大李雅普诺夫指数, 比较分析不同情景模式供应链系统的准混沌行为. 研究表明, 受约束条件影响的供应链系统具有相对复杂的动态特征, 但并不是无规律可循, 即使在随机需求模式下, 若订货策略合理, 则仍可减轻甚至避免系统的混沌行为; 反之, 在稳定的需求模式下, 不合理的订货策略仍会导致系统处于混沌状态. 仿真实验验证了研究结果的合理性.

Analysis of complex dynamics behaviors in constrained supply chain system under uncertain demand process

Under different demand patterns, the dynamic behaviors of nonlinear supply chain system constrained by limited supply capacity and forbidden returns are studied. By calculating the maximum Lyapunov exponent, the quasi- chaotic behavior is analyzed under different scenarios of supply chain systems. The study demonstrates that the constrained supply chain system has more complex dynamic characters, but some regular rules can be concluded. Even in the random demand pattern, if ordering policy is reasonable, the chaotic behavior can be mitigated or even avoided. On the contrary, under the certain demand pattern, unreasonable ordering policies would lead to chaotic behaviors of the supply system. The experimental results show the reasonability of the conclusion.