城镇化进程与电力需求增长的关系研究

分析了城镇化进程对电力需求的作用机制，研究了国内外主要国家城镇化率与用电量之间发展规律，总结出城镇化进程中电力需求增长的阶段性特征，认为城镇化与电力需求增长呈现高度正相关关系。分析了中国工业化、城镇化、市场化、国际化与电力需求的相关性，认为城镇化与电力需求相关性最高。构建了中国城镇化与电力需求增长的关系模型，提出中国城镇化率从50%提升到75%的未来进程中每提高1%，全社会用电量平均增长4.6%；当城镇化率超过75%，电力需求的增长将放缓。构建了天津地区城镇化与电力需求增长的关系模型，提出天津地区城镇化率从80%提升到90%的未来进程中每提高1%，全社会用电量平均增长8.8%，最高用电负荷增加89万kW。建议随着中国城镇化新一轮稳妥推进，要相应地加强发电和电网设施的匹配规划和建设；在地区电力负荷预测和饱和负荷分析工作中，要关注城镇化进程中农村人口向城镇转移而引起空间负荷变化等情况，科学进行中长期负荷预测。

Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization Process and Electricity Demand Growth

This paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of urbanization process to electricity demand, studies the development law of urbanization rate and electricity consumption of domestic and foreign major countries. It summarizes the characteristics of the periodic growth of electricity demand in urbanization process, and proposes that there is a high positive correlation between urbanization and electricity demand growth. Then, this paper analyzes the correlation between China’s industrialization, urbanization, marketization, internationalization with electricity demand, finding out the highest correlation between urbanization and electricity demand. Thirdly, this paper builds a model for the relationship between urbanization process and total electricity consumption growth of China, proposing that there’ll be average 4.6% growth in total electricity consumption for each 1% increase of urbanization rate in the future increase from 50% to 75% of urbanization rate, and when the urbanization rate surpasses 75%, electricity demand growth will slow down. It also builds models for the relationship between urbanization process and electricity demand of Tianjin City, proposing that there’ll be average 8.8% growth in total electricity consumption and 890 000 kW increase in power load for each 1% increase of urbanization rate in the future increase from 80% to 90% of urbanization rate. Lastly, this paper gives recommendations that as China’s new round of promoting urbanization, relevant departments should pay more attention to the corresponding planning and construction of power generation and grid facilities and pay special concern to changes in spatial load caused by population transfer from countryside to cities and towns.