概率积分法预计参数反演方法研究进展

概率积分法是我国矿山开采沉陷预计的主要方法，其预计的精度直接取决于参数的准确性，如何利用合适的方法准确稳定地求取预计参数是实际应用中的关键问题。全面总结了概率积分法预计参数反演的常用方法并分析了各种方法的优缺点，着重介绍了具有全局搜索能力遗传算法在参数求取中的应用。最后，从概率积分法求参误差、求参准则、求参范围、参数相关性及其模型的非线性等角度，提出概率积分法预计参数求取中存在的问题及需要进一步研究的内容。

Recent Progress on Parameter Inversion of Probability Integral Method

Probability integral method is the main method of predicting mining subsidence，and its prediction accuracy directly depends on the accuracy of the parameters.How to use the right methods to accurately and stablly calculate the expected parameters is the key issue in practical application.The probability integral method commonly used in parameter inversion is summarized and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods are analyzed.Then the global search ability of genetic algorithm applied in parameter calculation is emphatically introduced.Finally，the existing problems and the further research tasks in the probability integral method to predict parameters are put forword from the aspects of error，and principles and scope，parameters correlation in probability integral method and the nonlinear of the model.